Money

China Trade Surplus Crashes As Exports & Imports Collapse In March

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Forget the weather, it must be the smog. China just announced total carnage in its trade data for March:

  • CHINA’S MARCH IMPORTS FALL 12.3% Y/Y IN YUAN TERMS; EST. -11.3%
  • CHINA’S MARCH EXPORTS FALL 14.6% Y/Y IN YUAN TERMS; EST. +8.2%
  • CHINA’S MARCH TRADE SURPLUS 18.16 BILLION YUAN; EST 250B YUAN

So what exactly was the Chinese stock market ‘discounting’?

Trade Surplus collapses… (economists knew about year-end and forecast +250bn!!!)

 

As Exports crash and Imports continues to slide for the 5th month…

 

In US Dollars the picture is worse…

  • *CHINA’S MARCH EXPORTS FALL 15.0% FROM YEAR EARLIER
  • *CHINA’S MARCH IMPORTS FALL 12.7% FROM YEAR EARLIER
  • *CHINA’S MARCH TRADE SURPLUS $3.08 BILLION

While year-end shenanigans will likely be blamed (and sure enough…)

  • *CHINA 1Q TRADE VOLATILITY MAINLY DUE TO SPRING FESTIVAL: HUANG
  • *UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN CHINA’S 2Q EXPORTS MOMENTUM: HUANG

Which is odd that all the data massively missed expectations which we assume Economists were aware of the calendar?

We suspect – given the weakness in other recent data – that this clarifies the fact that Beijing will have to devalue and fast. Their economy is crashing…

Which means Moar QE… Which means stocks limit up?



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